A recent study led by McGill University suggests that Earth’s natural forces have the potential to significantly reduce the impact of Antarctica on rising sea levels. However, this reduction can only be achieved if carbon emissions are promptly and drastically reduced in the coming decades. Conversely, if current emission levels continue unchecked, the loss of Antarctic ice could lead to even greater sea level rise than previously anticipated.
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is the largest ice mass on Earth, making it a crucial factor in predicting future sea levels. One of the biggest uncertainties in this prediction is how the Antarctic ice will react to climate change. Lead author Natalya Gomez, an Associate Professor at McGill, emphasizes the importance of understanding the domino effect of Antarctic ice melt, especially in light of the fact that nearly 700 million people reside in coastal areas globally. The potential cost of sea level rise could reach trillions of dollars by the end of the century, making it imperative to comprehend the consequences of Antarctic ice loss.
As ice melts, its weight decreases, causing the land beneath it to rise in a process known as post-glacial uplift. This natural phenomenon acts as a brake on ice-mass loss, lifting the ice and slowing its flow from land to ocean. The researchers discovered that post-glacial uplift could reduce Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise by up to 40 percent if global emissions are significantly decreased. However, if emissions continue at their current rate, the rebounding land will be insufficient to slow the melting ice, resulting in accelerated sea-level rise along populated coastlines.
To arrive at these findings, Gomez and her team collaborated with scholars from Canada and the United States to create a 3D model of Earth’s interior. This model utilized geophysical field measurements from the U.S. ANET-POLENET project, which deployed sensitive instruments to record bedrock uplift and seismic signals across Antarctica. These field measurements were crucial for characterizing the three-dimensional variations of the Antarctic mantle incorporated in the study. According to co-author Maryam Yousefi, the model revealed significant variations in the thickness and consistency of the mantle below Earth’s surface, aiding in predicting regional responses to melting ice in Antarctica. This detailed model is the first of its kind to capture the relationship between Antarctica’s ice and the underlying Earth structure.
The study’s findings, published in Science Advances, underscore the stark inequalities of climate change. Island nations, which contribute minimally to global emissions, are likely to suffer the most severe consequences of rising sea levels triggered by melting ice in Antarctica. Co-author Rob DeConto, a glaciologist at the University of Massachusetts, notes that this study represents a significant advancement in predicting the impacts of climate change on sea level rise and can inform effective environmental policies. The collaborative effort between various renowned universities and institutions highlights the urgency of addressing climate change and its consequences for coastal communities globally.
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